In 1815 a
volcano erupted on the island of Sumbawa. This eruption through clouds of ash
and dust into the air, blocking out the sun. This had the consequence of making
a mini ice age for the world. Crops failed to grow and there were outbreaks of
disease. Globally the temperature had only fell by one degree. This shows how
delicate the temperature of the earth actually is.
Scientist
knew there is something strange about the past. For example arctic animals
remains in warm climates or boulders stranded in impossible places. Geologist
James Hutton was the first to theorize wide spread glaciation, unfortunately
his ideas where ignored. Common peasants, not corrupted by science, knew that
glaciation was the cause of these strange events.
A naturalist
called Louise Agassiz embraced this theory. While at the post of professor of
natural history Agassiz friend Karl Schimper first came up with the term ice
age and showed that there is good evidence to show that ice covered much of
Europe, Asia and North America. Louise and Karl swapped notes which lead to
Louise getting much of the credit that Karl felt should be his own. Agassiz
then travelled spreading his theory around the world but everywhere he went he
found reluctance to accept his theories. It took a while but eventually people
accepted wide spread glaciation. But what causes ice ages?
James Croll
a janitor at Anderson’s university published a paper in the philosophical
magazine in 1864, which was recognized as work of the highest standard. His
paper was about how earth’s orbit might have an impact on how ice ages start.
Croll was the first to suggest that shape obit of the earth, circular to oval
and back, might have an effect on the start and end of ice ages. Thanks to
Croll people in Britain started to accept the ideas of ice ages more readily.
Sadly the ice age theory fell out of fashion it was ‘to be rejected without
hesitation’ in the words of Agassiz’s successor.
One of the
difficulties that caused this was that Croll’s calculations meant that the last
ice age had to be only 80 thousand years ago whereas geological evidence shows
that the last ice age was much more recent than that. The theory was saved by
an academic by the name of Milutin Milankovitch. He thought that more complex
cycles in the astrological orbit of the earth are responsible for ice ages
coming and going. These cycles being tilt, pitch, and wobble which have a
profound effect on the earth’s temperature. He spent the next 20 years calculating
the angle and duration of incoming solar radiation at every latitude on earth,
in every season, for a million years, adjusted for three ever changing
variables. Eventually he wrote a book in 1930 called mathematical climatology
and the astronomical theory of climate change. He thought that, like most
people, it was a gradual increase in harsh winters that result in ice ages.
Meteorologist Wladimir Koppen saw that it was more subtle than that.
Koppen
found out that the cause of ice ages was because of cool summers and not harsh
winters. If all the winters ice wasn’t melted by the summer, he found, more
heat from the sun will be reflected back causing overall cooler temperatures
globally. ‘It is not the amount of snow that matters’ said Gwen Schultz ‘but
that the snow lasts’. This can cause ice ages. In the 1950’s scientist where
unable to associate Milankovitch’s cycles to ice ages. Sadly because of this
Milankovitch died before he was able to prove his cycles were correct and his
calculations fell out of fashion.
We are
actually in a small ice age at the moment. Having both poles frozen over is a
unique situation for the earth. In fact at the height of the last ice age 30%
of the world was covered in ice, 10% still is today. Earth usually has dramatic
changes from hot periods with no ice, then plunges into an ice age with
glaciers everywhere. There is no reason that this period of fine weather that
we live in should continue for any longer, there is every reason that is should
tip into freezing cold or much too hot. We live on a knife edge.
Ice ages
are not bad things for the planet. They grind up rocks leaving rich soil and scrape
out fresh water lakes. They shape the planet into how it is today. Tim Flannery
once said ‘there is only one question needed to ask of a continent to determine
the fate of its people “did you have a good ice age?”’